Question 11
Which one of the phenomena cited in passage A is an instance of the kind of “evidence” referred to in the middle of the second paragraph of passage B?
the breaking off of part of the Larsen ice shelf in 1995
higher regional temperatures since the 1940s
increases in storm intensities over the past several years
the increased duration of droughts in recent years
the increased duration of heat waves over the past decade
Explanation for Question 11
This question concerns the use of the word “evidence” in the second paragraph of passage B. The author acknowledges that there is “some evidence” that melting of the polar ice caps has occurred. This question asks the examinee to identify which of the phenomena cited in passage A could be seen as an example of that kind of evidence.
The correct response is (A), “the breaking off of part of the Larsen ice shelf in 1995.” The author of passage A cites this event in the first sentence, and it is evidence of melting of the polar ice caps.
Response (B) is incorrect because, while the higher temperatures in the Antarctic region since the 1940s might well be the cause of any melting of the polar ice that has taken place, it cannot be used as evidence of that melting.
Responses (C), (D), and (E) are incorrect because the phenomena they refer to—increased storm intensities, longer droughts, and longer heat waves—are all different possible consequences of global warming, like the melting of the polar ice caps. None of these phenomena can be taken as evidence of the melting of the polar ice caps.
Question 12
The author of passage B would be most likely to make which one of the following criticisms about the predictions cited in passage A concerning a rise in sea level?
These predictions incorrectly posit a causal relationship between the warming of the earth and rising sea levels.
These predictions are supported only by inconclusive evidence that some melting of the polar ice caps has occurred.
These predictions exaggerate the degree to which global temperatures have increased in recent decades.
These predictions rely on an inadequate understanding of the hydrological cycle.
These predictions assume a continuing increase in global temperatures that may not occur.
Explanation for Question 12
This question requires the examinee to infer what the opinion of one of the authors would be regarding a view expressed in the other passage. Specifically, the question asks which criticism the author of passage B would be most likely to offer in response to the predictions made in passage A concerning rising sea levels. The predictions in question are found in the second paragraph of passage A. There the author cites scientific estimates that global warming will result in a sea-level rise of 3 feet (1 meter) within the next century. At the end of the paragraph, the author adds, “Such a rise could submerge vast coastal areas, with potentially irreversible consequences.”
The correct response is (D). The author of passage B addresses the effects of global warming on sea levels in the second paragraph. In the third sentence of that paragraph, the author concedes that warming water would expand, causing sea levels to rise, and that the problem would be compounded if the polar ice caps melt. But the author of passage B goes on to argue two sentences later that warmer water temperatures might also result in more evaporation, which in turn could produce more snowfall on the polar ice caps, causing the ice caps to grow. The author concludes the discussion of sea levels by stating, “Certainly, we need to have better knowledge about the hydrological cycle before predicting dire consequences as a result of recent increases in global temperatures.” Since the author of passage A does in fact cite predictions of dire consequences, which are evidently made without taking into account the possible mitigating factors discussed in passage B, the author of passage B would be likely to regard those predictions as relying on an inadequate understanding of the hydrological cycle.
Response (A) is incorrect because the author of passage B agrees that there is a causal relationship between the warming of the earth and rising sea levels (third sentence of the second paragraph). The author of passage B holds, however, that the relationship between global temperatures and sea levels is more complex than acknowledged by those who make dire predictions. But the author does not object to merely positing that there is such a causal relationship.
Response (B) is incorrect because the author of passage B is aware that at least one factor other than the melting of the ice caps—namely the expansion of water as it warms—can cause sea levels to rise (third sentence of the second paragraph). There is no indication that the author of passage B believes that those who make the predictions cited in passage A are unaware of this additional factor, or that the melting of the polar ice caps is the only causal mechanism they rely on in making their predictions.
Response (C) is incorrect. The author of passage B does dispute the conclusions drawn by some people, such as the author of passage A, regarding the causes and consequences of the warming trend. But, as noted in the explanation for question 10, there is no evidence that the author of passage B disputes any claims made about the extent of the warming that has taken place so far.
Response (E) is incorrect because the author of passage B says nothing about any assumptions concerning future temperature increases underlying the dire predictions cited in passage A. There is therefore no evidence that the author of passage B is likely to view such assumptions as grounds for criticism.
Question 13
The relationship between passage A and passage B is most analogous to the relationship between the documents described in which one of the following?
a research report that raises estimates of damage done by above-ground nuclear testing; an article that describes practical applications for nuclear power in the energy production and medical fields
an article arguing that corporate patronage biases scientific studies about the impact of pollution on the ozone layer; a study suggesting that aerosols in the atmosphere may counteract damaging effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide on the ozone layer
an article citing evidence that the spread of human development into pristine natural areas is causing catastrophic increases in species extinction; an article arguing that naturally occurring cycles of extinction are the most important factor in species loss
an article describing the effect of prolonged drought on crop production in the developing world; an article detailing the impact of innovative irrigation techniques in water-scarce agricultural areas
a research report on crime and the decline of various neighborhoods from 1960 to 1985; an article describing psychological research on the most important predictors of criminal behavior
Explanation for Question 13
The response choices in this question describe pairs of hypothetical documents. Based on the descriptions of those documents, you are asked to identify the pair of documents that stand in a relationship to each other that is most analogous to the relationship between passage A and passage B. In order to answer this question, you need to determine, at least in a general way, what the relationship between passage A and passage B is.
As already discussed, the authors of passage A and passage B agree that global warming is occurring, but they disagree as to its cause. Passage A holds that human activity is substantially responsible, and in the last paragraph the author quotes the IPCC claim that warming is due “directly to the increasing quantities of carbon dioxide released by our burning of fossil fuels.” The last paragraph of passage B, on the other hand, states, “While human activity may be a factor in global warming, natural events appear to be far more important.”
The closest analogy to this relationship is found in response (C): an article citing evidence that the spread of human development into pristine natural areas is causing catastrophic increases in species extinction; an article arguing that naturally occurring cycles of extinction are the most important factor in species loss.
Like passage A and passage B, these two documents both agree that a trend—loss of species—is occurring. And also like passage A and passage B, these two documents differ in their assignment of responsibility for the trend. The first document identifies human activity as the salient cause, while the second document identifies natural cycles as the salient cause. Most importantly, both articles discuss the same phenomenon, and they propose conflicting explanations of the phenomenon, as is the case with passages A and B.
Response (A) is incorrect because the two documents discuss related topics—damage done by above-ground nuclear testing and practical applications of nuclear power—rather than the same topic, as in passage A and passage B. They are not attempting to explain the same phenomenon.
Response (B) is incorrect because while, at a general level, both documents engage the same topic—the effect of pollution on the ozone layer—they do not appear to agree that there is a phenomenon that needs to be explained, much less offer competing or conflicting explanations. The first document argues that at least some studies of the problem are beset with bias, without apparently making any claims about how pollution affects the ozone layer. Meanwhile, the second document seems to argue that the effects of different types of pollution may cancel each other out.
Response (D) is incorrect because the second document describes what appears to be a potential way to address the problem identified in the first document. Neither passage A nor passage B discusses a method for addressing the problem of global warming.
Response (E) is incorrect because the two documents discuss related problems, rather than the same problem. The first document discusses the relationship between crime and the decline of various neighborhoods over 25 years, while the second document addresses a different question: factors that might predict criminal behavior in individuals.
Question 14
Which one of the following most accurately describes the relationship between the argument made in passage A and the argument made in passage B?
Passage A draws conclusions that are not based on hard evidence, while passage B confines itself to proven fact.
Passage A relies on evidence that dates back to the 1940s, while passage B relies on much more recent evidence.
Passage A warns about the effects of certain recent phenomena, while passage B argues that some inferences based on those phenomena are unfounded.
Passage A makes a number of assertions that passage B demonstrates to be false.
Passage A and passage B use the same evidence to draw diametrically opposed conclusions.
Explanation for Question 14
This question tests for the ability to understand how the arguments in the two passages unfold and how they are related.
The correct response is (C). The author of passage A begins by describing some of the recent phenomena attributed to atmospheric heating. Some of the author’s particular choices of words—such as “the most spectacular manifestation yet” (second sentence of the passage, italics added) and “have been emerging around the world for several years” (end of the first paragraph)—clearly imply that such “spectacular” phenomena are likely to continue to emerge in the coming years. And in the second paragraph, the author describes the effects of a predicted sea-level rise due to global warming as “potentially irreversible.” In contrast, the author of passage B argues that an “extreme view” of global warming has developed, containing “exaggerations and misstatements” (first paragraph of the passage). For example, at the end of the second paragraph the author argues, “Certainly, we need to have better knowledge about the hydrological cycle before predicting dire consequences as a result of recent increases in global temperatures.” Thus, unlike the author of passage A, the author of passage B argues that some of the conclusions based on the phenomena surrounding global warming lack foundation.
Response (A) is incorrect because the author of passage A does in fact rely on hard evidence in drawing his or her conclusions. Though the author of passage B obviously questions inferences like those drawn in passage A, the evidence used in passage A (the breaking off of the Larsen ice shelf, more intense storms, etc.) is not in dispute. Nor does the argument in passage B confine itself exclusively to proven fact: in the second to last sentence of the second paragraph, the author speculates about possible implications of the “hydrological cycle” for the Antarctic ice sheet.
Response (B) is incorrect because both passages rely on recent evidence—for example, see the beginning and end of the first paragraph of passage A and the reference to Mount Pinatubo in the last paragraph of passage B.
Response (D) is incorrect because passage B does not demonstrate that any of the assertions made in passage A are false. For example, the author of passage B concludes the discussion of sea level in the second paragraph by stating, “Certainly, we need to have better knowledge about the hydrological cycle before predicting dire consequences as a result of recent increases in global temperatures.” This does not amount to a demonstration of the falsity of the predictions.
Response (E) is incorrect because, while both passages refer to some of the same phenomena—such as melting of polar ice—each also cites evidence that the other passage does not mention. In reaching its conclusion, passage A cites intense storms and extended heat waves in the first paragraph, and the release of carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels in the third paragraph; passage B mentions none of these things. In reaching its quite different conclusion, passage B cites the eruption of Mount Pinatubo, El Niño, and variations in the sun’s radiation and in the earth’s orbit, as well as evidence that the Antarctic ice sheets might be growing. None of this evidence is mentioned in passage A.
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